Volume 19, Issue 5 (8-2020)                   JRUMS 2020, 19(5): 515-538 | Back to browse issues page


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Rahmani A, Vaziri Nezhad R, Ahmadi Nia H, Rezaeian M. Methodological Principles and Applications of the Delphi Method: A Narrative Review. JRUMS 2020; 19 (5) :515-538
URL: http://journal.rums.ac.ir/article-1-5107-en.html
University of Medical Sciences
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Methodological Principles and Applications of the Delphi Method: A Narrative Review
 
A. Rahmani[1], R. Vaziri Nejad[2], H. Ahmadi Nia[3], M. Rezaian[4]
 
 
 
Received: 24/12/2019  Sent for Revision: 14/03/2020 Received Revised Manuscript: 26/04/2020 Accepted: 06/05/2020
 
 
Background and Objectives: The appearance of complex issues with insufficient information has resulted in the consensus or unanimity spread. The consensus methods include the nominal group and the Delphi method.The Delphi method is a systematic process to predict and help making decision through survey rounds and information gathering and finally the group consensus. This method has been designed as a group communication process aiming at conducting accurate examinations and discussion of a particular issue in order to determine aims, political researches and future events prediction based on experts’ opinions. Therefore, the aim of this study is to gain a general understanding about methodology and its applications in designing different programs with due attention to the importance of this method in medical sciences research, including health. In this study, first the general structure of the Delphi study method (history, definitions, purposes and its application) is discussed.  Afterwards, different types of Delphi method, including classical, policy, decision, numerical and historical methods (along with examples for better understanding of the subject) are discussed. In the following part, the main components of  the Delphi method including recitation or repetition, experts, experts qualifications, number of experts involved in the study, controlled feedback, questionnaire, sampling method, participant anonymity, time, results analysis, and experts consensus are explained. Finally, the Delphi study process, which includes the first, second and third rounds, and studying the weaknesses and strengths, validity and reliability of the Delphi method, is studied.
Key words: Methodological, Application, Delphi method, Narrative review
 
Funding: This study did not have any funds.
Conflict of interest: None declared.
Ethical approval: None declared.
 
How to cite this article: Rahmani A, Vaziri Nejad R, Ahmadi Nia H, Rezaian M. Methodological Principles and Applications of the Delphi Method: A Narrative Review. J Rafsanjan Univ Med Sci 2020; 19 (5): 515-38. [Farsi]


 
[1]- MSc Student of Epidemiology, Medical School, Rafsanjan University of Medical Sciences, Rafsanjan, Iran, ORCID: 0000-0002-7218-8706
[2]- Prof., Dept. of Epidemiology and Biostatistics,  Medical School, Rafsanjan University of Medical Sciences, Rafsanjan, Iran, ORCID: 0000-0002-1978-0946      
[3]- PhD Student of Biostatistics, Health School, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran, and Instructor, Dept.of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Medical School, Rafsanjan University of Medical Sciences, Rafsanjan, Iran, ORCID: 0000-0002-7010-1726
[4]- Prof., Dept. of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Medicine, Rafsanjan University of Medical Sciences, Rafsanjan, Iran, ORCID: 0000-0003-3070-0166
(Corresponding Author) Tel: (034) 31315123, Fax: (034) 31315123, E-mail: moeygmr2@yahoo.co.uk
Type of Study: Review Article | Subject: Statistics& Epidemiology
Received: 2019/12/24 | Accepted: 2020/05/6 | Published: 2020/08/30

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